Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Propels Villa's Surprising Championship Bid
Just two months in the past that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed as his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained if his performances were a symptom or the reason for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six games, are somehow a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened in London, and it happened against United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title while looking like an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As Rogers faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.