Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
